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China Auto Sales Slowdown: 1% Growth Expected
14 Jan
Summary
- Vehicle sales growth projected at 1% for the year, down from 9.4%.
- Electric and hybrid sales growth to halve from 28.2% to 15.2%.
- Exports may see a slowdown in growth to 4.3%.
The China Association of Automobile Manufacturers (CAAM) has projected a slowdown for the nation's vehicle sales and exports in 2026, citing sluggish domestic demand and persistent external uncertainties. Vehicle sales are anticipated to grow by a modest 1%, a significant deceleration from the 9.4% growth recorded last year. This overall slowdown is mirrored in the electric and plug-in hybrid vehicle segments, where sales growth is expected to fall to 15.2% from 28.2% previously.
Contributing to the muted outlook, insufficient domestic demand stems from concerns over unsteady incomes and job security among residents. Additionally, stricter regulations on zero-mileage used cars are expected to create short-term inventory pressures for automakers. The association also pointed to geopolitical uncertainties and economic trade tensions as factors that will likely dampen export performance.
Vehicle exports are forecast to rise by 4.3%, a considerable drop from the robust 21.1% growth seen in the prior year. An increasing push by Chinese automakers to localize production is also anticipated to impact export figures. These combined factors suggest a more challenging year ahead for China's automotive industry.
