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Cathay Pacific Soars: Stock Up 27% Year-to-Date
21 Dec, 2025
Summary
- Cathay Pacific shares have surged 27% this year and 37% over the past year.
- Analyst price targets range from HK$8.2 to HK$13.2, with a consensus of HK$10.378.
- SWS DCF model estimates Cathay's fair value at HK$25.77, a significant gap from HK$12.0.
Cathay Pacific Airways has demonstrated remarkable performance this year, with its shares increasing by about 27% year-to-date and 37% over the past year, outperforming the broader Hong Kong market. This upward trend reflects growing confidence in the airline's recovery narrative, evidenced by a 13.53% return over the last 90 days.
Analysts present a mixed outlook, with a consensus price target of HK$10.378, suggesting the stock is approximately 9.6% overvalued from a narrative fair value of HK$10.94. However, alternative valuation models, such as the SWS DCF, place the fair value significantly higher at HK$25.77, indicating a potential 53.4% gap from its current trading price of HK$12.0.
Factors such as sustained fleet upgrades, network expansion, and strong demand in cargo and premium travel could potentially drive margins and earnings beyond current conservative expectations, presenting a compelling investment question about Cathay Pacific's future growth trajectory.
