Bitcoin Reclaims $90K: Fragile Rally or Real Comeback?

Bitcoin has successfully climbed back above the $90,000 level this week. However, indicators from crypto derivatives markets suggest that the rally's foundations are fragile, with traders maintaining a defensive stance. Despite a notable return of inflows to Bitcoin exchange-traded funds on January 5th, the strongest single-day net inflow since October 7th, the broader market structure has not yet mirrored this enthusiasm.

Analysis of Bitcoin perpetual and dated futures, key gauges of market sentiment, reveals a concentration of bets in short-term contracts. Demand for longer-dated futures on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, often seen as a barometer for institutional interest, remains subdued. This cautious outlook is further supported by muted funding rates for perpetual contracts and a high concentration of open interest in the front-month expiry, indicating limited bullish positioning.

While the persistent selling seen in the final weeks of 2025 has reversed, lifting prices in the initial trading days of 2026, questions about cryptocurrency's value persist. Bitcoin's relative stagnation compared to gold and equities has led some experts to suggest that its best performance days may be behind it. Further gains could invigorate CME futures activity, particularly through basis trades.