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Bitcoin Bottoming? Long-Term Holders Face Major Losses
12 Jul
Summary
- Bitcoin is in an advanced bottom formation phase, lacking decisive confirmation signals.
- Long-term investors, not speculators, are driving selling pressure and realizing significant losses.
- U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF demand remains weak, with significant institutional capital outflows.
Leading crypto analytics platform Glassnode reports that Bitcoin (BTC) is currently in an advanced phase of bottom formation, though definitive confirmation signals are still absent.
For approximately five months, Bitcoin has traded below its True Market Mean of $76,600 and the short-term holder cost basis of $72,200. This prolonged period in the "Deep Value" zone is marked by significant selling pressure from long-term investors. These holders, who have owned BTC for at least 155 days, are realizing around $280 million in losses daily on a smoothed 30-day average, a level not seen since December 2022.
The article highlights that the current wave of capitulation has not yet subsided, posing a barrier to a credible return to a bull market. This indicator's development is crucial for identifying potential seller exhaustion.
Furthermore, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs are experiencing weak demand. While average daily net outflows have decreased from early June, institutional capital continues to exit the market significantly on a monthly basis. Daily ETF trading volumes have also declined substantially, falling around 80% from their peak. In contrast, the derivatives market shows signs of cautious stabilization, with a notably low put-call ratio.
