Why are stablecoin inflows important for Bitcoin?

Stablecoin inflows act as 'dry powder' or fuel for crypto rallies, indicating available capital for investment.

Are long-term Bitcoin holders selling?

Yes, long-term holders have turned into aggressive sellers since October, significantly increasing selling pressure.

Home / Business and Economy / Fidelity Expert Warns Bitcoin Cycle May Be Done

Fidelity Expert Warns Bitcoin Cycle May Be Done

Q: What does Fidelity's Jurrien Timmer say about the Bitcoin cycle?

Jurrien Timmer suggests Bitcoin's four-year cycle may have ended in October, based on price and on-chain data.

25 Dec

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Summary

Bitcoin failed to rally on positive US CPI data, sparking bear market talk.
Stablecoin inflows to exchanges have dropped nearly 90% since August.
Long-term holders are selling aggressively, increasing distribution pressure.

Fidelity Expert Warns Bitcoin Cycle May Be Done

Recent market data suggests Bitcoin may already be entering a bear market, diverging from typical supportive macroeconomic signals. Despite a recent decrease in US CPI to 2.7%, which typically strengthens rate-cut expectations, Bitcoin's price has stalled, indicating a lack of fresh capital. This trend has led analysts like Fidelity's Jurrien Timmer to suggest that Bitcoin's four-year cycle may have ended in October, both in terms of price and time.

Evidence supporting this view includes a significant drop in stablecoin inflows, often considered a precursor to crypto rallies. Exchange inflows for ERC-20 stablecoins fell from a peak of approximately 10.2 billion in August to about 1.06 billion by late December, a decrease of nearly 90%. This collapse in 'dry powder' occurred around the same time Bitcoin reached its recent high, reinforcing the idea that distribution has replaced accumulation.