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Bapcor's Valuation Steady Amid Shifting Sector Views
4 Dec, 2025
Summary
- Bapcor's fair value target remains A$3.21, discount rate slightly reduced.
- JPMorgan and UBS express optimism for regional financial peers.
- New guidance forecasts NPAT of $40m-$50m for FY26, excluding NZ impairments.
Bapcor's valuation remains anchored at A$3.21 per share, with a marginal decrease in the discount rate reflecting growing analyst confidence in sector-related risks. This positive sentiment is partly influenced by optimistic reports from houses like JPMorgan regarding regional financial peers, encouraging a view of Bapcor as a steady growth entity rather than a cyclical risk.
Recent financial guidance for the first half of FY26 indicates statutory net profit after tax between $3 million and $7 million, excluding potential impairments. For the full fiscal year 2026, Bapcor anticipates a statutory NPAT of $40 million to $50 million, also before accounting for any New Zealand segment write-downs. The explicit exclusion of New Zealand impairments signals ongoing strain in that market.
This financial outlook suggests a path toward recovery in the latter half of FY26 after a softer first half. The potential for restructuring or write-downs in New Zealand remains a key point of watch for investors monitoring Bapcor's strategic adjustments and operational performance moving forward.
