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Economists Brace for Weak August Jobs Numbers
4 Sep
Summary
- August hiring is projected at 53,000 roles, a soft number.
- Wage growth is expected to be anemic, lagging rising prices.
- Private sector indicators suggest a continued labor market slowdown.
The upcoming August jobs report is expected to reveal continued softness in hiring, with economists forecasting only 53,000 new roles. This projection follows a contraction of 23,000 jobs in the previous month. Projections also indicate anemic wage growth of 0.3% month-over-month and 3% annually.
This slowdown in wage growth comes at a critical time for consumers, particularly those with lower incomes, as inflation in July stood at 3.4% and energy prices are climbing. International crude oil benchmarks have surpassed $97 per barrel, with Brent crude rising over 20% since early August.
August has historically been a weak month for U.S. job growth, with expectations falling short in 11 of the last 16 years. Data from private sector indicators, such as ADP's payroll report showing only 38,000 private sector jobs added in August, support these concerns. The slowdown appears concentrated in recruitment rather than workforce reductions, making conditions more challenging for new labor force entrants.
