AstraZeneca Trial Data Nears: A $5B Sales Catalyst?

Jefferies has reiterated its 'buy' rating for AstraZeneca, designating the drugmaker as a Franchise Pick. The firm has set a price target of 18,000p, indicating a potential 30% upside. The focus is on the CARDIO-TTRansform Phase III study for eplontersen, branded as Wainua, targeting transthyretin amyloidosis. Data from this crucial trial is anticipated in the second half of 2026.

A positive result from the Wainua trial could mitigate risks associated with an estimated $5 billion in future sales and contribute to AstraZeneca's net present value. Analysts favor the trial's design, noting the substantial patient population and the potential to test Wainua both as a monotherapy and in combination with existing treatments.

The broader transthyretin amyloidosis market is projected to reach approximately $18 billion by 2030. This growth is expected to be fueled by advancements in earlier diagnosis and a shift towards disease-modifying treatments for a condition that remains significantly underdiagnosed.

AstraZeneca's pipeline, including the amyloid-clearing antibody cliramitug, supports the view of a diversified franchise. To sustain its projected 3% annual top-line growth beyond 2030, the company aims to de-risk around $12.5 billion in incremental revenue by 2034, a goal considered achievable by analysts. The current valuation reflects a premium justified by these future prospects.