Nvidia: The Real AI Winner in Anthropic IPO?

Anthropic, a prominent AI lab known for its Claude large language models, is reportedly preparing for an initial public offering (IPO) in 2026, with market valuations speculated to reach up to $2 trillion. Despite this substantial figure, the company's financial performance and current revenue may not fully justify such a price tag, suggesting potential short-term market enthusiasm followed by a need for profitability improvements.

Crucially, Anthropic's prospectus indicates that the primary constraint on AI advancement is the availability of compute power. This suggests that the true growth opportunity lies not necessarily with AI developers, but with the suppliers of essential computing hardware. The company plans to raise approximately $518 billion over the next decade to fuel its expansion, emphasizing that demand for AI will not be an issue, but rather the supply of computing resources.

This situation strongly benefits computing unit suppliers like Nvidia. The demand from AI hyperscalers continues to outstrip Nvidia's current production capacity, with its growth forecast contingent on persistent supply constraints. Anthropic's significant capital raise and stated focus on compute needs further bolster the investment case for Nvidia, as companies like Anthropic will fuel its continued expansion.

While Anthropic aims to build a substantial subscription base for its products, achieving the necessary scale for financial success presents considerable challenges. Analysts project Nvidia's revenue to approach $700 billion by 2028, a figure that dwarfs Anthropic's potential revenue even under highly optimistic subscription scenarios. Therefore, Nvidia appears to be a more established and potentially safer long-term investment compared to Anthropic, which still has significant business model risks to overcome.