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Fuel Shock: American Airlines Faces Major Earnings Risk
5 Mar
Summary
- American Airlines is most vulnerable to rising fuel costs due to the U.S.-Iran conflict.
- Analyst downgraded American Airlines, citing significant downside risk to estimates.
- Every 10-cent fuel price increase impacts American Airlines' EPS by nearly 25%.
Rothschild & Co Redburn has issued a warning regarding American Airlines' exposure to rising fuel costs, particularly in light of the ongoing U.S.-Iran conflict. The bank has downgraded the airline's rating to neutral from buy and reduced its price target to $12.5 per share. Analyst James Goodall highlighted that while the underlying demand for U.S. airlines showed positive trends heading into 2026, the Middle East conflict introduces significant disruptive pressures and potential fuel cost inflation.
Goodall's analysis indicates that American Airlines possesses the greatest sensitivity to fuel price fluctuations; a 10-cent change per gallon in fuel costs could translate to nearly a 25% impact on its earnings per share. This sensitivity, coupled with existing network pressures such as overcapacity in Chicago and some exposure to the Middle East, leads to an expectation of substantial downgrades to consensus forecasts. Consequently, Goodall now projects negative earnings for American Airlines this year, though he anticipates a strong rebound in profitability and cash generation next year.
