AI Spending Boom Fuels Tech Stock Surge

Tech stock futures showed an upward trend this morning, with Nasdaq 100 contracts indicating a rise before the New York opening bell. This optimism stems from several major tech firms announcing increased capital expenditures dedicated to artificial intelligence initiatives, suggesting a substantial influx of cash that could positively impact U.S. GDP.

Goldman Sachs forecasts AI capex to reach $539 billion in 2025, a 36% increase from the previous year, with further growth to $629 billion by 2027. However, analysts like Ben Snider at Goldman Sachs note that the growth rate is expected to slow to 17% by 2027.

Bank of America estimates total AI/cloud capex at $641 billion for the current year, projecting a 36% increase, followed by $739 billion next year with a 15% growth rate. The capital expenditure guidance from chipmaker TSMC for 2026, showing a 32% year-over-year increase, is seen as a key indicator of industry spending appetite.

Wells Fargo anticipates 34% growth in AI capex. While consensus suggests a significant slowdown from previous years, their analysts expect capex to consistently exceed expectations, potentially growing by 49% year-over-year in 2026 for hyperscalers. This trend is characterized as an "AI arms race" with higher expected capex for major players like Meta, Microsoft, and Amazon.

Piper Sandler highlights the immense scale of this spending, estimating that while data center construction itself accounts for $18 billion, it triggers an additional $175 billion in related spending, equating to approximately 0.6% of U.S. GDP. This includes knock-on effects for builders and energy suppliers supporting the expanding data center infrastructure.