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AI's Growth Boom: Who Gets Left Behind?
22 Oct
Summary
- Poorer countries may miss AI benefits without improved infrastructure.
- AI could add 0.5% to annual global growth, but adoption lags.
- Younger workers are vulnerable as AI automates tasks for experience.
Artificial intelligence presents a dual prospect for global growth, offering substantial economic boosts while simultaneously posing risks of exclusion for developing economies and vulnerable worker demographics. Officials from the IMF and OECD have highlighted that without improvements in power access, digital infrastructure, and skills development, poorer countries and smaller businesses may not reap the benefits of this technological revolution.
The IMF estimates that AI could contribute up to 0.5% to annual global growth over the medium term. Despite massive investments in AI infrastructure supporting current market highs, the aggregate productivity gains are still developing. The OECD projects an addition of 0.4% to 1.2% to annual productivity growth across its member nations, yet notes that actual business adoption of AI lags behind consumer use.
Concerns are mounting regarding the impact of AI on employment, with the IMF suggesting that approximately 40% of global jobs could be exposed to AI-driven changes. Reports of layoffs from major companies like Barclays, EBay, and Qualcomm, citing cost reductions and efficiency gains through technology, underscore these anxieties. Younger and entry-level workers are identified as particularly susceptible, as AI might automate the tasks through which they traditionally acquire essential job experience.
