Tony Awards 2026: Who Will Win vs. Who Should Win?

The 79th Tony Awards are approaching, with "Schmigadoon!" predicted to take home the Best Musical award. This choice is largely influenced by out-of-town presenters seeking shows that can be successfully marketed to their subscriber bases across the country. The current theater season has seen a notable lack of strong new musicals, leading the New York Drama Critics' Circle to forgo a Best Musical award this spring.

Other contenders for Best Musical include "The Lost Boys," whose complex staging presents touring challenges, and "Two Strangers (Who Carry a Cake Across New York)," considered artistically and commercially superior due to its lower production costs and potential for name recognition building. Cinco Paul is also anticipated to win for Best Score and Book of a Musical for "Schmigadoon!"

In the play categories, Bess Wohl's "Liberation," winner of the 2026 Pulitzer Prize, is a strong contender for Best Play. This would mark a significant moment, as female playwrights have been historically underrepresented in this category. Wendy White's direction of "Liberation" is also noted, though Joe Mantello is predicted to win for "Death of a Salesman."

Revivals are expected to dominate directing awards, with Zhailon Levingston and Bill Rauch favored for "Cats (The Jellicle Ball)" over more original works. Best Revival of a Musical is a tight race between "Cats" and "Ragtime," with "Rocky Horror" also considered deserving. Arthur Miller's "Death of a Salesman" is a likely winner for Best Revival of a Play, though "Becky Shaw" is presented as a superior alternative, with Tony voters historically favoring living playwrights.

Acting awards are predicted to go to Joshua Henry for Best Actor in a Musical and Lesley Manville for "Oedipus" in a play category, though other performances are highlighted as more deserving. Sentiment is expected to play a role in featured acting awards, with veteran actors likely to be honored for their long careers.