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Academy Awards: Unpredictable Supporting Races Heat Up
28 Feb
Summary
- Supporting Actor and Actress races are surprisingly complex this year.
- Past Oscar winners in supporting categories often won precursors.
- Actor Awards wins are strong indicators for Oscar success.
This year's Academy Awards are featuring unusually unpredictable races for Best Supporting Actor and Best Supporting Actress. This contrasts sharply with recent seasons where dominant frontrunners consistently won precursor awards, leading to predictable outcomes. The current landscape presents a scenario where several actors and actresses have a realistic chance of clinching the Oscar.
The Golden Globe winners historically hold a strong correlation to Oscar wins for Best Supporting Actor, with 77% of them going on to win the Academy Award this century. The Actor Awards follow closely at 73%, with Critics Choice at 69% and BAFTAs at 62%.
For Best Supporting Actress, the Actor Awards have proven to be the most significant predictor, with 81% of their winners securing an Oscar. Since 2010, only one winner has achieved this without a SAG Award win. Examining past snubs and wins, such as those for Christoph Waltz and Benicio del Toro in the supporting actor category, provides context for current contenders facing similar situations.
The upcoming Actor Awards ceremony is anticipated to offer much-needed clarity or introduce further chaos into these closely watched categories. Wins at this event are seen as critical for boosting contenders' odds significantly, potentially leading to near-certain Oscar victories or creating even more thrilling uncertainty in the final stretch.
