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Oscar Race Heats Up: Sinners vs. OBAA Showdown
14 Feb
Summary
- BAFTA Awards will be a crucial indicator for Sinners' momentum.
- Craft guild awards offer limited direct competition between films.
- SAG Awards is considered the biggest predictor for Best Picture.

The awards season is gaining momentum following the Oscar nominations, with the BAFTA Awards on February 22nd set to provide crucial insights. 'Sinners' received 13 nominations, while 'One Battle After Another' (OBAA) secured 14, setting up a competitive atmosphere. Despite 'Sinners' outperforming OBAA domestically, OBAA holds an international box office lead.
Craft guild awards, including the Artios, ACE Eddie, and Art Directors Guild Awards, will offer limited direct head-to-head competition between the films due to category divisions. However, later ceremonies like the Golden Reel, CAS, and ASC Awards will pit them directly against each other, though these results may come after Oscar voting concludes.
Non-industry awards like the NAACP Image Awards, Dorian Awards, and Satellite Awards serve as cultural barometers. A strong showing for 'Sinners' here could signal shifting sentiment, mirroring past underdog victories. The Producers Guild of America (PGA) Awards on February 28th is a significant predictor, with a 'Sinners' win potentially upending conventional wisdom.
The Actor Awards, scheduled for March 1st, is considered the most critical precursor. Historically, Best Picture winners often secure Best Cast at SAG. 'Sinners' exhibits many traits of a SAG victor, including a large, diverse ensemble and mainstream appeal. A strong weekend at the PGA and SAG Awards could position 'Sinners' as a serious Best Picture contender heading into Oscar night.




