Netflix's Billion-Dollar Gamble: Can Liam Hemsworth Succeed Henry Cavill in 'The Witcher'?

As of October 10th, 2025, Netflix's hit fantasy series "The Witcher" is set to return for its fourth season, but it faces a significant challenge: a new leading man. Henry Cavill, who has been the face of the show since its debut, is passing the silver sword to Liam Hemsworth. This casting change is a billion-dollar gamble, with both fans and the industry closely watching to see how it will play out.

Early data from Parrot Analytics suggests Netflix may have reason for concern. Global demand for "The Witcher" in the lead-up to its fourth season is tracking behind where the show was ahead of its second and third seasons. Four weeks out from the premiere, the show had less than 30x the average series demand globally, compared to 35x and 41.5x for the previous seasons at the same point in time. Additionally, the spikes in demand around pre-release trailer drops have been more subdued than in previous years.

The Witcher has been a massive success for Netflix, ranking as the fifth-largest global revenue driver for the streamer from 2020 through the first half of 2025, generating nearly $930 million so far. The fourth season may push the franchise over the $1 billion mark, making the stakes of the casting shake-up even higher.

Cavill has been a significant part of the show's success, and his audience has closely aligned with the show's demographic. Hemsworth, on the other hand, has a more female-skewing and younger audience, which could attract new viewers but also risk alienating the existing fanbase. As an adaptation of a beloved book and video game series, "The Witcher" has already navigated the challenges of appeasing existing fans, and the upcoming changes will test the franchise's ability to maintain its loyal following.