Warm Gulf Waters Raise Concerns for Rapid Tropical Intensification

As of August 27th, 2025, attention in the tropics is shifting to waters close to North America, with Tropical Storm Fernand expected to remain well offshore. However, the storm may still bring high surf and dangerous rip currents to coastal areas of Newfoundland this week.

The main development region of the central and southeastern Atlantic has seen a lull in tropical activity this week due to dry and dusty air. Additionally, the lingering cool waters left behind by Hurricane Erin have temporarily suppressed future tropical development until the waters warm up.

Conditions closer to the United States, however, appear more favorable for potential tropical depression formation. Forecasters warn that an unusually strong dip in the jet stream is expected to push into the Southeast states over the Labor Day weekend, which could help spin up homegrown tropical development near the US coast.

While the risk for tropical development is currently low, the pattern is expected to bring showers, thunderstorms, and torrential downpours that could lead to flash urban flooding. Notably, it is somewhat rare to see the potential for homegrown tropical development in late August, as this is typically seen earlier or later in the hurricane season.

Looking ahead, atmospheric conditions conducive to tropical development are forecast to return by the end of the first week of September, as the peak of the hurricane season looms. Experts are particularly concerned about the "untapped" warm waters of the Gulf, which could allow any budding tropical system to rapidly intensify.