Florida Fall Forecast: Expect Warmth, Not Chill

Meteorological fall began on September 1, 2026, with astronomical autumn starting on September 22, 2026. However, residents in the Pensacola area and much of Florida are likely to experience summer-like temperatures and humidity extending through November. Forecasts indicate fall temperatures will be approximately two degrees warmer than average.

An intense El Niño is expected to play a significant role, shifting the subtropical jet stream southward. This shift will likely bring increased rainfall and a higher chance of severe storms to the Panhandle. While El Niño may suppress tropical cyclone activity in the Atlantic, warm sea surface temperatures along the Gulf Coast will contribute to the elevated heat and humidity, with cooler air intrusions from the north anticipated to be minimal and short-lived.

The hurricane season concludes on November 30, 2026, with September typically being a peak month. Although storm predictions have been revised downwards, the potential for damaging storms remains. Additionally, the El Niño pattern, combined with warm Gulf waters, is expected to fuel thunderstorms and increase flood risks, with a notable shift in severe weather focus towards the southern Plains, Gulf Coast, and Tennessee Valley.