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US Snow Divide: South Gets Snow, North May See Less
4 Sep
Summary
- Models predict above-average snowfall for central and southern US.
- Northern US and southern Canada may experience below-normal snowfall.
- A strong El Niño is expected to persist through February 2027.
Upcoming winter forecasts for 2026-2027 reveal a striking snow divide across the United States. Leading seasonal models, including the ECMWF and UK Met Office, predict above-normal snowfall for much of the central, southern, and eastern U.S. This pattern is strongly influenced by a developing "very strong" El Niño event, which is expected to persist through February 2027.
El Niño typically shifts atmospheric circulation, potentially steering the Pacific jet stream and moisture-laden storm systems across the southern U.S. When combined with colder air, this can lead to increased snowfall. Forecasters see potential for significant snow in areas like the Southwest, Central Plains, Midwest, and Mid-Atlantic.
Conversely, projections indicate a deficit in snowfall for the northern U.S. and southern Canada. This creates a notable contrast between regions. While some areas anticipate more snow than usual, others may experience less, a trend that could impact seasonal activities and preparations.
Forecasting systems highlight an unusual level of agreement between the ECMWF and UK Met Office models for January. This confluence of predictions adds weight to the potential for a southern-heavy snow pattern. However, forecasters caution that these are general trends, not guarantees, and individual storm outcomes can vary.
