Fall Forecast: Warmth Lingers Nationwide

As of August 20, 2026, a national forecast indicates that most of the United States will experience above-average temperatures from September through November. This warm trend is largely attributed to a strengthening El Niño, which is expected to dominate weather patterns throughout the fall and into winter. This could mean a prolonged period of summer-like warmth for many.

Meteorological fall begins September 1, while astronomical fall commences on September 22. The outlook highlights specific regions, including southeastern Alaska, the Pacific Northwest, and the northern Rockies, with the highest probabilities of above-normal temperatures. An area of "equal chances" for temperature variations exists across the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys.

Precipitation forecasts suggest drier-than-average conditions for parts of the Northwest and Northeast. Conversely, the Southwest and Southeast are expected to receive wetter-than-average rainfall. Drought conditions in the Southwest may see some relief, but Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands could face intensified drought due to suppressed rainfall.

Wildfire risks are a concern, particularly in the Northwest through early September. While El Niño typically brings drier conditions to the upper Midwest, Great Lakes, and Northeast, creating fire concerns, the southern tier of the U.S. is less likely to see consistently warm weather as fall progresses. Flooding potential is also a notable concern from the southern Plains to the interior Southeast.