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UK Weather: Storms Brew as Drought Fears Ease
17 Oct
Summary
- Dominant high pressure steered Atlantic storms away, causing drought.
- El Niño's strengthening may bring wetter, windier weather soon.
- UK has not yet seen its first named storm of the season.
The UK has faced a prolonged period of dry weather, with dominant high-pressure systems diverting typical Atlantic storms. This has led to significant drought conditions in some regions, with parts of Herefordshire receiving only a tenth of their usual rainfall by mid-October, and severe drought declared in some southern English areas due to low reservoir levels.
However, this dry spell may be temporary. The strengthening of El Niño in the Pacific is influencing global weather patterns, creating conditions for a more potent jet stream. This could lead to deeper low-pressure systems affecting the UK.
The Met Office forecasts a growing probability of wetter and windier weather developing in late autumn and early winter. There's a possibility of the UK experiencing its first widely disruptive weather spell later this week, with a double normal chance of wetter conditions and a 1.3 times normal chance of windier weather forecast for October, November, and December.
Storms are typically named when potentially damaging winds or significant flooding rain are forecast. The UK, Ireland, and the Netherlands form a storm-naming group, with storms beginning to be named in 2015. While named storms are most common in autumn and winter, it is not unusual for the first storm to arrive after November 1st.
