Tropical Wave Strengthens in Caribbean, Potential Storm Looms

On October 20th, 2025, a tropical wave located near the far southeastern Caribbean is showing signs of potential development. According to the National Hurricane Center, the system currently lacks a closed circulation but is becoming more organized and could transform into a tropical depression in the coming days.

The system is already churning up a large area of showers and thunderstorms, which are expected to impact the Windward Islands in the southeastern Caribbean through Monday morning. Forecasters predict the system will further organize midweek as it moves west at around 20 mph, reaching the warm waters of the central or southern Caribbean.

"Atmospheric conditions are primed for a storm to form in the Caribbean," said AccuWeather Lead Hurricane Expert Alex DaSilva. "The waters are exceptionally warm since the Caribbean has not been disturbed by a single tropical storm or hurricane so far this season." This lack of prior activity, combined with low wind shear, may allow the system to quickly intensify into a tropical storm.

The next named storm would be Melissa. While the system's exact track remains uncertain, experts say it would need to reach Jamaica or Mexico's Yucatán Peninsula to pose a threat to Florida. If the system remains weak and continues westward, it may track into Central America without further impact on the United States.