January Pacific Storm? Rare Tropical Anomaly Looms

A Florida meteorologist has alerted the public to the possibility of a tropical system forming in the Eastern Pacific this weekend or early next week. This occurrence is considered 'extremely rare' for January, a period well outside the typical hurricane season which ended on November 30. While conditions are usually unfavorable due to cold water temperatures and increased wind shear, models indicate a brief window for a small tropical system.

Experts estimate the chance of such a formation at a low 10 percent, likely resulting in a subtropical storm rather than a fully tropical one. The National Hurricane Center is not currently tracking any potential disturbances in the Eastern Pacific. If a storm were to form, it is not expected to impact California or Mexico, likely dissipating quickly in the cold waters.

This potential event is notable because historical records show no reported cases of January tropical storm formation in the Eastern Pacific. While a few January systems have occurred in the Central Pacific and Atlantic, the Eastern Pacific's cooler waters and winter wind shear typically prevent such development. However, the presence of thunderstorms on satellite imagery offers a slim possibility for formation.