NY Winter Outlook: Warmer Temps Expected

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Climate Prediction Center forecasts a winter season (December 2026-February 2027) favoring warmer-than-normal temperatures across New York. A very strong El Niño is identified as the primary driver for this anticipated shift in weather patterns for the contiguous United States.

Across New York, the probability of above-normal temperatures ranges from 50% to 60%. Warmer conditions are also expected in much of the Northeast. Precipitation outlooks show equal chances of above- or below-normal amounts in western and central New York.

Eastern New York, including the Capital Region, Catskills, Hudson Valley, and New York City, has an increased chance of above-normal precipitation, between 33% and 50%. While seasonal outlooks do not predict specific snowfalls, increased precipitation does not guarantee a snowier winter. Winter storms remain possible.

A stronger, more stable polar vortex is favored by strong El Niño conditions, potentially reducing Arctic air outbreaks. However, isolated cold snaps and snowstorms are not entirely ruled out. Other forecasters, like AccuWeather, also anticipate a warmer and potentially less snowy winter for New York's northern tier.