La Niña Looms: Colder Winter Forecast for North India

According to the latest forecasts, North India, including the national capital region (NCR), is likely to experience a colder winter this year due to the expected return of La Niña conditions from October to December 2025.

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has stated that there is a 71% chance of La Niña setting in during the upcoming months. La Niña refers to the periodic large-scale cooling of ocean surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific, which can have significant climate impacts, often opposite to those of the El Niño warming pattern.

Meteorologists explain that during La Niña, the sea surface temperatures in the equatorial and eastern Pacific are lower, leading to stronger western disturbances and higher snowfall in North India. However, they also note that the influence of global warming may offset some of the cooling impact of La Niña, as the planet's overall temperatures continue to rise.

While a La Niña event does not necessarily guarantee a severe winter, experts suggest that temperatures in the Delhi-NCR region are likely to be mostly below normal this season. They caution that if there are too many weak western disturbances, the northerly winds may not set in properly, leading to short periods of below-average temperatures.