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India's Weather Forecasts Soar in Accuracy
4 Feb
Summary
- Weather forecast accuracy for severe events improved 30-40% over 10 years.
- Karnataka's forecast accuracy shows significant yearly gains up to 2025.
- Monsoon prediction accuracy improved with reduced error rates since 2021.
Weather forecasting accuracy in India has significantly improved over the last ten years, according to the Union Minister of State for Science and Technology. Severe weather event predictions for one to five days in advance have seen a 30-40% increase in accuracy across the Indian region.
Detailed data from Karnataka illustrates this progress. For instance, one-day ahead forecast accuracy for north interior Karnataka rose from 52% in 2021 to 88% by 2025. Similar substantial improvements were noted for two- to five-day lead periods across north interior, south interior, and coastal Karnataka.
The India Meteorological Department has also enhanced its seasonal forecasting through a Multi-Model Ensemble (MME) strategy adopted since 2021. This has led to marked improvements in monsoon prediction accuracy, with average absolute error for all-India forecasts dropping to 2.28% in 2021-2024 from 7.5% in 2017-2020.
