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Monsoon Delayed: Kerala Faces Weak Onset, Heat Wave to Abate
29 May
Summary
- Typhoon over West Pacific pulls moisture away, delaying monsoon onset.
- Weak monsoon onset expected over Kerala, with delayed progress afterwards.
- Heat wave conditions in Northwest India are predicted to subside soon.
The southwest monsoon's arrival in Kerala, typically around June 1, is facing a potential delay and a weak onset due to specific atmospheric conditions. Currently, as of May 29, 2026, the monsoon has advanced into parts of the Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal.
Two primary factors are influencing this delayed onset: a developing typhoon in the West Pacific is drawing moisture away from the Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal, and a cyclonic circulation over the Lakshadweep region is limiting rainfall over Kerala. Experts predict a weak initial monsoon and slow progress thereafter.
Despite the delayed monsoon, conditions are expected to become favorable for its further advance across southern India, the Arabian Sea, and the Bay of Bengal between May 28 and June 3. Concurrently, the severe heat wave conditions gripping Northwest India are forecast to abate.
Additionally, isolated heavy rainfall is anticipated over Northeast and adjoining East India for the next two to three days, and over south Peninsular India on May 29. Moderate to severe thunderstorm activity with squally winds is expected across Northwest, Central, and East India until May 31.
The evolving ENSO-neutral conditions are moving towards El Niño, which historically correlates with suppressed monsoon rains. The Monsoon Mission Coupled Forecasting System also forecasts the development of El Niño conditions during the ongoing southwest monsoon season.
