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Atlantic Hurricane Season Starts: El Niño's Impact Unclear
1 Jun
Summary
- A below-normal Atlantic hurricane season is predicted for 2026.
- Early storm model predictions often generate hype, forecasters warn.
- Warm sea surface temperatures are noted in the Gulf of Mexico.
The 2026 Atlantic hurricane season officially commenced on June 1st, with forecasters anticipating a below-normal year. Predictions suggest between eight to fourteen named tropical storms, with three to six potentially developing into hurricanes. This is a reduction from the typical average of fourteen named storms.
Forecasters are advising caution regarding early-season storm predictions generated by models like the GFS, which are known to overproduce tropical cyclones. These models can create unnecessary public concern. Currently, no tropical activity is forecast for the Atlantic during the first week of June.
While El Niño's influence on wind patterns is still unfolding, sea surface temperatures in the main Atlantic hurricane development region are near normal. However, the Gulf of Mexico is experiencing very warm waters, close to record highs seen in 2024.
The Eastern Pacific hurricane season, which began on May 15th, is monitoring two areas of disturbed weather. Meanwhile, a significant Saharan dust layer is moving across the Atlantic, which typically suppresses hurricane formation and intensity.
