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Historic El Niño Threatens 2026-27 Winter
1 Sep
Summary
- El Niño has over 90% chance of becoming very strong this winter.
- A historic event exceeding 1950 records is possible this season.
- Rocky Mountains may see first snows as early as September.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration has updated its forecast, indicating a strong likelihood of a severe El Niño event impacting the Northern Hemisphere's fall and winter of 2026-27. Current predictions suggest a greater than 90% chance of a very strong El Niño.
Furthermore, NOAA revealed a 69% probability of a historic event occurring during the October-December 2026 season, potentially surpassing the strength of all recorded El Niño events since 1950. This phenomenon is described by meteorologists as highly unusual, possibly a "once in a lifetime" occurrence.
The development of a "Super El Niño" involves Pacific Ocean surface waters warming by more than two degrees Celsius above average. This temperature anomaly can shift the Pacific jet stream southward, leading to drier and warmer conditions in northern U.S. and Canada, while increasing precipitation and flooding risks along the U.S. Gulf Coast and Southeast.
As a result of this predicted El Niño, some U.S. states are anticipating early snowfall. The highest elevations of the Rocky Mountains in Montana, Idaho, Utah, and Wyoming are expected to receive their first snowflakes in September. Snowfall in the Cascades of Oregon and Washington may arrive slightly later due to a warmer autumn forecast. AccuWeather also notes increased chances for early-season snow events in Colorado, Utah, and New Mexico during November.
