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La Niña Fades: El Niño's Arrival Expected by Fall 2026
12 Feb
Summary
- La Niña conditions are likely to transition to ENSO-neutral, then El Niño by fall 2026.
- El Niño's formation has a 50-60% chance for late summer and beyond.
- El Niño typically limits Atlantic hurricanes but boosts Pacific activity.
The dominant La Niña climate pattern in the Pacific Ocean is expected to conclude soon. Current forecasts from NOAA's Climate Prediction Center indicate a transition through a brief ENSO-neutral phase before a probable El Niño develops by the fall of 2026. This shift is a significant development in global weather patterns.
Scientists estimate a 50-60% likelihood of El Niño forming for late summer and continuing into the fall. While NOAA is being cautious due to the spring prediction barrier, other international weather agencies are more confident, with some predicting El Niño's arrival as early as summer 2026.
La Niña has influenced US weather this past winter, contributing to drier conditions in the south-central and southeastern regions, and wetter conditions in the northern states. El Niño's arrival could significantly impact the 2026 hurricane seasons. Historically, El Niño events tend to suppress tropical storm and hurricane activity in the western Atlantic and Caribbean.
