Costa Rica Faces Hotter, Drier Future: El Niño Looms

Costa Rica is anticipating a hotter and drier climate in the coming months, with the National Meteorological Institute (IMN) issuing warnings about the increasing likelihood of El Niño conditions developing by the second half of 2026. This forecast suggests reduced rainfall nationwide, elevated average temperatures, and a more pronounced dry-season character.

Temperature anomalies could range from 0.5 to 1 degree Celsius above normal, with the Guanacaste region expected to experience the most significant heat impact. Projections indicate below-normal precipitation throughout several periods this year, with potential rainfall deficits of 15% to 30% from April through November. This significant reduction in expected rainfall raises concerns regarding water resources, agricultural productivity, and heightened fire conditions, particularly in regions already prone to arid spells.

International climate agencies, including NOAA and the World Meteorological Organization, also foresee a growing probability of El Niño emerging between June and August 2026. While currently in a neutral ENSO phase, the transition points towards potential shifts in Costa Rica's typical rainfall patterns as the wet season commences. Early indicators, such as drier-than-normal conditions observed in the Pacific region for the week of April 13 to 19, are being closely monitored.

Residents and visitors are advised to prepare for these changes. Homes may require enhanced ventilation or cooling systems, and gardens or small farms might need more attentive care. Water conservation measures could be implemented in communities reliant on local water systems. Outdoor activities may need to be rescheduled to earlier in the day to avoid the peak midday heat. Additionally, the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season is projected to be less active, with nine to 12 systems expected, though Costa Rica could still experience indirect effects from at least one storm.