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Calm Before the Storm: Atlantic Braces for Potential Hurricane Surge
10 Sep
Summary
- Quiet Atlantic hurricane season so far, but models predict increased risk
- Tropical waves off Africa could boost storm formation chances in coming weeks
- Cold front off US coast also poses risk of tropical development
As of September 10, 2025, the Atlantic hurricane season has been remarkably quiet, with only one named storm, Hurricane Erin, so far. However, meteorologists are now warning that this calm may be the precursor to a potential surge of tropical activity in the coming weeks.
According to the latest Global Tropics Hazards and Benefits Outlook from the Climate Prediction Center (CPC), there is a 40 to 60 percent chance of storms developing across the central Atlantic near the Cape Verde Islands starting September 17. These systems are expected to track westward toward the Lesser Antilles, with the potential to affect the wider Atlantic basin.
Forecasters have also predicted a 20 to 40 percent probability of tropical cyclones forming in the northwest Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico over the next two weeks. Additionally, a particularly strong tropical wave projected to emerge off the coast of Africa around September 20 could boost formation chances in the eastern Atlantic to 40 to 60 percent.
Meteorologists have also highlighted a cold front thousands of miles to the northwest, just off the southern Atlantic Coast of the US, which "could spin up tropical development this weekend or early next week." AccuWeather lead hurricane expert Alex DaSilva noted that "it is unusual for the tropics to be this quiet, but not unexpected," as the Atlantic hurricane season typically sees a midseason lull.
