Bigger, More Damaging Hail Storms Forecast for Europe's Future

According to the latest weather forecast, the Met Office has issued yellow weather warnings for heavy rain in western Scotland and Northern Ireland this Saturday, September 28th, 2025. The warnings are in place from early morning until late evening, with the potential for flooding of businesses and homes, as well as disruptions to travel, especially on public transport.

In a concerning development, the Met Office has also released research showing that climate change may lead to less frequent but bigger and more devastating hailstorms across Europe. The study, conducted by experts from the Met Office, Newcastle University, and the University of Bristol, found that under a high-emissions scenario, severe hail events are likely to become less common, except for very large hailstones measuring 5 cm or more in diameter. These larger hailstones can cause significantly more damage than smaller ones, potentially outweighing any benefits from fewer hailstorms overall.

The researchers attribute this trend to factors such as hail forming higher in the atmosphere as the climate warms, leading to more time for the hailstones to melt before reaching the ground, as well as weakening large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns. As a result, society may need to prepare for less frequent but more impactful hail events in the future, with the potential for "tropical-type hailstorms" impacting Europe.