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Atlantic Storm Faces El Niño's Fury
26 Aug
Summary
- A new tropical system may form in the Atlantic.
- El Niño conditions create harsh wind shear.
- Past El Niño years saw U.S. landfalling hurricanes.
A tropical wave has moved off the African coast and shows potential for developing into a tropical depression or storm. Forecasters are closely monitoring this system, which, if it intensifies, could be named Dolly.
However, the developing system faces significant hurdles from El Niño conditions. These conditions create a hostile environment with strong wind shear and dry air over the western Atlantic, which could prevent the storm from surviving its journey. Long-term forecast models are currently divided on the system's prospects.
Despite the challenges posed by El Niño, which generally lowers the risk of hurricanes, history indicates that landfalling storms can still occur. Several strong El Niño years have seen U.S. hurricanes, including Agnes in 1972 and Idalia in 2023. Therefore, preparedness for potential storms remains advised.
Sea surface temperatures in the main Atlantic development region are warmer than normal, though not record-breaking. In contrast, the Gulf of Mexico has near-record warm surface temperatures, but below-normal ocean heat content below the surface.
