Houthis poised to seize vital Bab el-Mandeb Strait

An intensified Houthi offensive has brought the Iran-backed militant group close to controlling the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, a vital passage linking the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden. This strategic gain, achieved through a rapid 18-hour campaign, positions the Houthis to potentially influence global energy exports, mirroring Iran's control over the Strait of Hormuz.

The implications are significant for India, which relies heavily on the Bab el-Mandeb for importing crude oil and petrochemicals, as well as for reaching European markets with its own exports like refined fuels and pharmaceuticals.

The strait, translating to "Gate of Tears," is crucial for global transit, connecting the Mediterranean Sea to the Indian Ocean via the Suez Canal. It facilitates the flow of Saudi oil to Asia and carries Asian exports to Europe.

Recent Houthi advances, including the capture of Mocha and Mayun Island, have consolidated their control over Yemen's Red Sea coast. This military progress, bolstered by alleged Iranian support, has led to declarations of control over the Bab el-Mandeb.

While a Houthi spokesperson stated that navigation would remain safe unless targeting specific entities, a blockade on Saudi shipping has been in effect since July. Increased Houthi activity has already led to shipping companies avoiding the Suez Canal, opting for longer routes around the Cape of Good Hope.

If the Bab el-Mandeb becomes too risky due to attacks and soaring insurance costs, Saudi Arabia could face substantial economic pain, with longer and costlier voyages to its main Asian markets. India would also experience increased energy prices and higher freight costs for its exports, potentially diminishing its competitiveness in Europe.