Waymo's New Driver Model Mimics Human Surprise

Waymo has unveiled a sophisticated new computer model designed to accurately simulate human driving behavior, particularly in complex traffic conflicts and crash scenarios. Developed in partnership with TU Delft, this model, named the Reference Driver, is built on the theory of active inference, suggesting drivers constantly anticipate futures and act to ensure safety. This represents an evolution from previous models that focused primarily on last-second reactions. The Reference Driver can now simulate a driver’s internal feeling of ‘surprise,’ offering a more human-like benchmark for autonomous vehicle performance. This advancement is crucial as Waymo scales its robotaxi operations and faces increased scrutiny. The company aims to use this model to better evaluate its autonomous driving software against human performance, especially in challenging situations encountered by its vehicles. Waymo is also encouraging wider research by releasing the model's research code under an academic, non-commercial license. This move allows for research, teaching, and personal experimentation, fostering collaborative development in autonomous driving safety and behavior simulation.