NYC Robotaxi Pilot Ends: Driverless Future Uncertain

New York City has ended its first robotaxi pilot, featuring eight Waymo autonomous vehicles, with no immediate plans for revival or broader deployment. Mayor Zohran Mamdani appears hesitant, even as Waymo and rivals expand elsewhere. Historian Peter Norton urges caution, noting that AV enthusiasm echoes past transportation technology hype cycles, which have historically promised but not fully delivered on utopian visions. He criticizes aggressive marketing tactics that frame opposition to robot cars as dangerous.

Norton highlights a recurring 20-year pattern of excitement and disillusionment with new automotive technologies, dating back to expressways in the 1930s and 40s, transistors in the 1960s, and "smart highways" in the 1980s and 90s. He argues that current AV promotion mirrors these past strategies, leveraging advancements like 5G and LiDAR to create a sense of inevitable progress. Norton also points out that fundamental constants like vehicle geometry and mass limit AV transformations, preventing a revolution on par with the early 20th-century automobile's impact.

While self-driving technology is undeniably game-changing, Norton stresses the automotive industry's poor track record of fulfilling past promises. He suggests AVs may simply lead to a new form of car dependency rather than a radical transformation. Furthermore, Norton raises concerns about how AVs might intimidate pedestrians, mirroring historical efforts to prioritize car speed over other street users. He advises caution when promoters, who have something to sell, describe future technologies.