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AI Beats Humans in Forecasting Contest
18 Sep
Summary
- AI startup Mantic secured $25 million in seed funding.
- Mantic accurately predicted future events better than humans.
- Microsoft's venture fund backed the AI forecasting company.
AI developer Mantic announced on September 18, 2026, that it has successfully raised $25 million in seed funding. The round was led by Radical Ventures, with participation from Microsoft's venture fund M12, Thinking Machines Lab, and Balderton Capital.
This funding follows Mantic's exceptional performance in the summer 2026 Metaculus Cup, an online forecasting tournament. The London-based startup demonstrated superior accuracy in predicting political, economic, and cultural events compared to human participants, marking a first in the competition's history where AI led.
Mantic specializes in enhancing frontier AI models for forecasting purposes. The company tests and refines its predictive systems using historical data, ensuring continuous improvement. CEO Toby Shevlane stated that the technology aims to elevate human understanding of the future.
During the Metaculus Cup, Mantic's AI benefited from avoiding common human biases, such as herd mentality, which led to more accurate predictions in several instances. The company's success has attracted significant interest from global companies and government agencies, including hedge funds and trading firms eager to leverage its forecasting capabilities.
