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USC vs. Washington: Upset Alert!
4 Oct
Summary
- Washington +9.5 is the best value play.
- USC's defense is ranked 108th in EPA per play.
- Washington's defense is ranked 10th in EPA per play.
USC enters their matchup against Washington as a significant favorite with a 76% implied win probability. However, the 9.5-point spread suggests the Trojans might be overvalued, making Washington +9.5 the optimal betting choice. USC's performance in Big Ten play since the start of the 2024 season has been inconsistent.
The Trojans' defense remains a concern, ranking 108th in EPA per play. Conversely, Washington boasts a strong defense, sitting 10th in EPA per play. This defensive advantage, coupled with potential offensive success, could allow Washington to keep the game close and challenge USC.
The game's total is set at 57.5 points. Both teams have shown slow starts, with Washington hitting the first-quarter Under in 10 of its last 13 games and USC in seven of its last eight. Washington's defense has allowed an average of 4.6 yards per play, while USC's defense has struggled, giving up 6.1 yards per play.
