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Socceroos' World Cup Fate: Risk vs. Reward
23 Jun
Summary
- Australia needs a draw against Paraguay to advance to the knockout stage.
- A narrow loss for Australia gives them a 96% chance of progressing.
- Belgium is a likely opponent for Australia in the round of 32.
As of 2026-06-23T00:52:57+00:00, Australia is poised to advance to the World Cup's last 32. With a high probability of progressing, the Socceroos face Paraguay in their final group game. Even a narrow defeat is likely sufficient, with simulations giving them a 96% chance of advancing as a best third-placed team.
Their most probable outcome places them second in Group D, potentially setting up a knockout match against Belgium in Dallas on July 3rd. Alternatively, a third-place finish could see them face stronger European contenders like Germany, France, or Portugal.
Paraguay also has a strong incentive to secure a draw, which would likely ensure their own progression. This shared interest could lead to a cautious match, where neither team risks conceding by pursuing a winning goal.
