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Premier League Title Race: Stats vs. Reality
12 Mar
Summary
- Dominant expected goal difference teams have won title 3 of 4 seasons.
- Just three points separate four teams fighting for fifth place.
- Aston Villa has an easier run-in after facing Manchester United.
The Premier League's recent title winners have not been as statistically dominant in terms of expected goals as in previous years, suggesting increased competitiveness or underlying team issues. Historically, the team with the best expected goal difference per game, excluding penalties, has secured the Premier League title in three of the past four seasons. The exception was two seasons ago when Manchester City narrowly beat Arsenal to the championship.
The race for fifth place, likely securing Champions League qualification, is exceptionally tight. Manchester United, Aston Villa, Chelsea, and Liverpool are separated by just three points, meaning one of these clubs is poised to miss out on European football's premier competition.
Aston Villa is considered to have the most manageable fixture list among the contenders following a challenging match against Manchester United. Their upcoming games include several against teams in the bottom six of the league.
Liverpool currently sits outside the top five but has an opportunity to build momentum against mid-table opponents. However, they face a demanding schedule in May, with successive matches against their direct Champions League rivals.
