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Penn State Drops Out of Playoff Projection, Faces Uphill Battle
30 Sep
Summary
- Penn State drops to No. 12 in latest playoff projection
- Needs wins against Ohio State and Indiana to stay in playoff race
- Offense has struggled even against weaker competition

On September 30, 2025, the latest College Football Playoff projection saw Penn State drop out of the top 12, landing at the dreaded No. 12 spot. This means the Nittany Lions would be replaced by the fourth and fifth conference champions if the playoff were to be seeded today.
Penn State's double-overtime loss to Oregon last Saturday has put them firmly on the playoff bubble. The team now faces immense pressure to win at Ohio State on November 1 and against Indiana on November 8 to keep their playoff hopes alive. However, the Nittany Lions' offense has struggled to impress, even against weaker competition, raising doubts about their ability to compete with the top teams.
According to ESPN's Allstate Playoff Predictor, Penn State now has just a 22.5% chance of reaching the College Football Playoff, ranking 19th in the country. The selection committee will be closely watching to see if the Nittany Lions can turn things around and earn a signature win against Ohio State or Indiana. Failure to do so could mean Penn State misses the playoff entirely, despite a potential 10-2 record.