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Nuggets vs. Timberwolves: Model Predicts Game 3 Upset?
24 Apr
Summary
- The Nuggets are series favorites at -210, but Game 3 is in Minneapolis.
- SportsLine's model has a strong 73% record on NBA spread picks this season.
- The model projects the total score to be Under 234.5 points.
Game 3 of the Denver Nuggets vs. Minnesota Timberwolves playoff series is scheduled for Thursday, April 24, 2026. The Nuggets, despite dropping Game 2 at home, remain favored at -210 according to FanDuel Sportsbook. The Timberwolves are looking to capitalize on home-court advantage at the Target Center in Minneapolis to take a commanding 3-1 series lead. Tipoff is set for 9:30 p.m. ET.
SportsLine's projection model, which simulates every NBA game 10,000 times, has released its picks for this matchup. The model boasts a strong record, with over $10,000 in betting profit for $100 players on its top-rated NBA picks over eight seasons. It is currently on a 24-9 run for top-rated NBA spread picks this season.
The model's analysis suggests betting the Under on the total points scored, projected at 234.5. This prediction aligns with recent trends, as the total has gone Under in seven of the Timberwolves' last 10 home games and in the first game of this series. The Timberwolves have seen the Under hit in 66% of their home games this season.
For player performance, the model projects Nikola Jokic to lead the Nuggets with 27.2 points, while Anthony Edwards is expected to score 29.1 points for the Timberwolves. The simulation indicates a combined score of 225 points, with the Under hitting 66.2% of the time. The model also indicates a strong lean on one side of the spread.
