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NFL's Go-For-It Trend: Eagles Spark Revolution
27 Jan
Summary
- Fourth down attempts have increased by 75.3% in a decade.
- Doug Pederson's Eagles Super Bowl win ignited the trend.
- Analytics and win expectancy drive modern fourth down decisions.
The go-for-it revolution in the NFL, significantly influenced by Doug Pederson's tenure as head coach of the Philadelphia Eagles, has dramatically altered game strategy. Historically, fourth downs were primarily for punting, but Pederson's approach, notably during the Eagles' Super Bowl-winning 2017 season, spurred a widespread strategic shift.
This change is evident in the numbers: fourth-down attempts per team per game have risen from 0.93 in 2015 to 1.63 in the most recent season, marking a 75.3% increase. This surge, nearly tripling from the 1980s average of 0.57, emphasizes the paramount importance of ball possession.
Modern NFL coaches, including Sean Payton and Sean McVay, have increasingly embraced analytics and win expectancy calculations to guide these decisions. Despite criticism for aggressive fourth-down calls that sometimes fail, like in recent playoff games, the trend toward going for it more often and succeeding at a higher rate appears set to continue, driven by a new generation of analytically-minded coaches.
