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NCAA Bubble Bursts: Top Teams Stumble
3 Feb
Summary
- Many top conference teams have struggled recently.
- Bubble teams' records are concerning heading into February.
- Mid-major teams have fewer chances to impress committees.
As of February 3, 2026, many teams vying for a spot in the NCAA men's tournament are struggling, creating significant headaches for the selection committee. Last week, a combined record of 16-18 for teams on the bubble from high-major conferences paints a concerning picture.
Even excluding strong performances from Indiana, NC State, and Seton Hall, the remaining teams went 10-18. These losses include notable upsets like TCU losing at Colorado and LSU getting blown out at home by Mississippi State. Creighton, Baylor, and Stanford also suffered defeats to teams with weaker records.
Miami (Fla.), recently falling out of the projected bracket, highlights the bubble's difficulty, as the team lacks significant wins against projected tournament teams, with Bethune-Cookman being a notable exception.
While February offers many opportunities for these teams, the scarcity of chances for mid-major contenders like New Mexico, San Diego State, and Santa Clara could lead to a higher number of mediocre power conference teams filling the tournament field.
