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McVay's Audacious 2nd-and-10 Gamble Pays Off
8 Jul
Summary
- McVay consistently passes on 2nd-and-10 after first-down incompletions.
- This strategy yields a 72.9% pass rate for the Rams.
- Analytics show passing on 2nd-and-10 improves success rates significantly.
Los Angeles Rams head coach Sean McVay consistently employs an analytics-driven strategy on second-and-10 following a first-down incompletion, eschewing traditional conservative play-calling. Data from 2022 through 2025 shows McVay's Rams are one of the most pass-heavy teams in such situations, boasting a 72.9% pass rate over 192 occurrences. This approach contrasts sharply with league trends, where passing on second-and-10 after an incompletion has proven more successful.
Analytics indicate that choosing to throw the ball in this specific down-and-distance scenario provides a substantial advantage. Since 2022, this aerial strategy has resulted in a +16.6 percentage point increase in success rate, an additional +0.23 Expected Points Added (EPA) per play, and a +6.5 percentage point boost to series success rates. This aggressive philosophy has been a cornerstone of McVay's tenure since 2017, enabling the Rams to generate explosive plays and field one of the league's most productive offenses.
