Derby Longshots: History Favors Underdogs Over Favorites

Since implementing a points-based qualification system in 2013, the Kentucky Derby has become a more predictable event. This system ensures that only accomplished horses, vetted through more than 30 races over seven months, qualify for the 20-horse field.

Historically, favorites have won 46 percent of the Derby races under this new system, averaging odds of 3.2-1. However, analysis reveals that certain underlying traits, independent of jockey or bloodline, are crucial for success, especially for potential longshot winners.

Key performance indicators include peak Beyer Speed Figures of 95 or higher, achieved by 85 percent of winners since 2000. Stamina, assessed by how well horses close their final races, is also vital. Horses meeting Final Fractions Theory benchmarks (closing the last 1/8 mile in under 13 seconds or the last 3/8 mile in under 38 seconds) have a strong track record.

Starting gate position significantly impacts performance in the crowded 20-horse field. Gates 5 through 10 have collectively produced 42 victories since 1930, representing 44 percent of all wins. Furthermore, "early" or "early/presser" type horses, who tend to set or challenge for the lead, have won 62 percent of Derbies since 2013.

For the 2026 race, Commandment (6-1) is identified as a strong contender, boasting consecutive Beyer Speed Figures over 100 and winning the Florida Derby. Longshot hopes include Danon Bourbon (20-1) from Japan, noted for speed and stamina, and Incredibolt (20-1), a volatile but potentially potent contender with excellent closing fractions and past wins at Churchill Downs.