Home / Sports / Indy 500 Model Predicts Shockers: Dixon Rises, Daly Falls
Indy 500 Model Predicts Shockers: Dixon Rises, Daly Falls
23 May
Summary
- SportsLine's model simulates the Indy 500 10,000 times for predictions.
- Scott Dixon, a past winner, is a surprising longshot pick by the model.
- Conor Daly, a favorite, is projected to finish outside the top 10 due to disadvantages.
A proprietary projection model from SportsLine is offering predictions for the 110th Indianapolis 500, scheduled for Sunday, May 24, 2026. This model, which simulates races 10,000 times, has a proven history of success in predicting NASCAR winners. For the 2026 Indy 500, the model identifies Scott Dixon, a 2008 victor familiar with the Indianapolis Motor Speedway, as a noteworthy longshot pick. Despite +1700 odds, Dixon's consistent top-8 finishes entering the race and strong backing from Chip Ganassi Racing make him a contender.
In a surprising turn, the model projects Conor Daly to struggle, finishing just outside the top 10. Daly, who has achieved four consecutive top-10 Indy 500 finishes and was considered a favorite at +750, faces challenges. His lack of recent IndyCar Series competition in 2026 and his team's historically winless record in the Indy 500 contribute to this projection. The model also highlights two other drivers with odds longer than +1000 who could contend for victory.
