Moon to Be Hit by Rocket Debris in 2026

An upper stage from a SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket, launched in January 2025, is projected to impact the Moon on August 5, 2026. This prediction comes from independent astronomer Bill Gray, who uses Project Pluto software for tracking. The object, designated 2025-010D, is anticipated to strike near the Einstein crater on the Moon's western limb.

At the predicted impact time of 06:44 UTC, the 45-foot-tall debris will be traveling at approximately 5,400 mph, roughly seven times the speed of sound. While invisible from Earth, researchers will use orbiting spacecraft, like the Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter, to observe the resulting crater and analyze the ejected lunar material.

Astronomers note that solar radiation pressure has made precise trajectory predictions challenging due to the object's tumbling motion. This particular rocket stage, unlike others that burn up or orbit the sun, has remained in a looping orbit around Earth, crossing paths with the Moon's orbit.

This event follows historical instances where human-made objects intentionally impacted the Moon, such as spent lunar modules during the Apollo era, to study its internal structure through artificial moonquakes.