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World Population Peak: Decline Ahead?
25 Nov
Summary
- Global population may peak this century with 80% UN probability.
- A quarter of the world already lives in countries with declining populations.
- Future may see competition for immigrants rather than border control.
The global population is poised to peak this century, with a significant 80% probability of subsequent decline, a stark increase from previous decades' projections. Currently, one in four people inhabit nations like China, Germany, and Japan, where populations have already peaked. Projections indicate more countries, including Brazil and Vietnam, will join this trend by 2054.
This unfolding demographic shift, observed across diverse societies from Nepal to Iran, complicates simple explanations for falling birth rates. While a shrinking world may present fiscal challenges for supporting aging populations, optimism persists. Advances in health and cognitive abilities suggest older individuals can remain economically active and contribute culturally, as exemplified by South Korea's dynamic aging society.
Future scenarios envision a reversal of current immigration debates, with countries possibly competing to attract migrants. Technological advancements, particularly in AI, may also shift labor dynamics, automating physical tasks while preserving cognitive roles for an aging workforce. These future-gazing exercises highlight how today's concerns might appear alien to future generations.
